4f390b6d-5d9c-4c31-b738-0ae557399c38 urn:uuid eng UTF-8 nonGeographicDataset nonGeographicDataset 2025-10-16T22:08:12 creation ISO 19115 2016 Aftershock probability model for Australia 4f390b6d-5d9c-4c31-b738-0ae557399c38 After a main shock, the magnitude and timing of smaller aftershocks follow characteristic distributions known as Gutenberg-Richter and Omori laws, respectively. Based on these empirical laws, Reasenberg and Jones (1989) proposed a model to estimate the probability of earthquakes during an aftershock sequence as a function of time and magnitude. In this study, the parameters of the Reasenberg and Jones aftershock magnitude-time distribution are derived using the Australian instrumental earthquake catalogue (1900-2010). Two sets of model parameters are determined: sequence-specific parameters determined for well recorded aftershock sequences and generic parameters determined for a stack of events with magnitudes larger than or equal to 5. Both sets are found to be comparable to similar studies in other regions of the world. The spatial variation of model parameters is also studied and it is found that aftershock sequences in Southeastern Australia are less productive than sequences in Western Australia. Applicability of the derived generic parameters to forecast aftershock rates in Australia is verified using recent aftershock sequences that were not included in the earthquake catalogue such as the 2012 Gippsland earthquake. External Publication Published_External Seismology and Seismic Exploration External Publication documentDigital Link to Publication PDF Unnamed resource documentDigital HTML