18932d0a-81b9-4868-a737-e833925361f9 urn:uuid English UTF-8 nonGeographicDataset nonGeographicDataset 2018-06-29T00:12:43 creation ISO 19115 2016 Agricultural commodities: June quarter 2016 18932d0a-81b9-4868-a737-e833925361f9 Overview This report contains ABARES' latest forecasts for 2016-17 for Australia's major agricultural commodities. In addition, this publication includes articles on the EU dairy industry and Australia's trade in fresh fruit, tree nuts and vegetables. Key Issues Commodity forecasts • The gross value of farm production is forecast to increase by 1.1 per cent to around $58.5 billion in 2016-17, following an estimated 6.3 per cent increase to $57.8 billion in 2015-16. At this forecast level, the gross value of farm production in 2016-17 would be around 12 per cent higher than the average of $52 billion over the five years to 2015-16 in nominal terms. • The gross value of livestock production is forecast to stay around $29.8 billion in 2016-17, following an estimated 10.9 per cent increase in 2015-16. • The gross value of crop production is forecast to increase by 2.5 per cent to $28.6 billion in 2016-17, after an estimated increase of 1.8 per cent in 2015-16. This mainly reflects forecast increases in the gross value of sugar, cotton and horticultural production offsetting the forecast decreases in the gross value of grain production. • Export earnings from farm commodities are forecast to be $43.0 billion in 2016-17, 2.5 per cent lower than $44.1 billion in 2015-16. • The agricultural commodities for which export earnings are forecast to rise in 2016-17 are wool (up 6 per cent), sugar (14 per cent), lamb (1 per cent), cotton (21 per cent), canola (12 per cent) and live feeder/slaughter cattle (3 per cent). • Forecast increases in 2016-17 are expected to be more than offset by forecast falls in export earnings for beef and veal (down 9 per cent), wheat (7 per cent), dairy products (6 per cent), barley (2 per cent), chickpeas (43 per cent) and mutton (18 per cent). • Export earnings for fisheries products are forecast to stay around $1.7 billion in 2016-17, after increasing by an estimated 16.7 per cent in 2015-16. Economic assumptions underlying this set of commodity forecasts In preparing this set of agricultural commodity forecasts: • World economic growth is assumed to be 2.9 per cent in 2016 and 3.3 per cent in 2017. • Economic growth in Australia is assumed to average 2.5 per cent in 2015-16 and 2016-17. • The Australian dollar is assumed to average US73 cents in 2016-17, largely unchanged from the estimated average for 2015-16. Articles on agricultural issues The EU dairy industry • The EU dairy industry is supported by domestic and trade policies implemented through the Common Agricultural Policy. • Without a change to the existing trade barriers for Australian dairy exports and stronger European demand for imported dairy products generally, Australian exports to that market are unlikely to increase significantly in the short term. Trade in fresh fruit, tree nuts and vegetables • Australia is a significant net exporter of fresh fruit, fresh vegetables and tree nuts. • Changing diets in Asia's middle class, the depreciation of the Australian dollar and improved market access following the negotiation of several FTAs have supported exports of Australian fresh horticultural produce. Australia 151.122622 151.122622 -25.371968 -25.371968 AGRICULTURE AGRICULTURE Crops AGRICULTURE Livestock AGRICULTURE statistics Australian FISHERIES FISHERIES production FISHERIES statistics FORESTS FORESTS production FORESTS statistics Farming INDUSTRY INDUSTRY Primary INDUSTRY Primary statistics March agriculture commodities crop farm performance fisheries forestry horticulture livestock productivity rural Agricultural commodities: June quarter 2016 - Report (revised 2016-06-21) documentDigital KeyDocument 01 Revised 2016-06-21: • Page 19, chart 'Major Australian agricultural commodity exports', canola price increase for 2016-17 corrected to 6% from 3%, consistent with published oilseeds table • Page 34, chart 'Wheat exports, Australia, 2008-09 to 2016-17', export values series corrected, consistent with published wheat table. PDF Agricultural commodities: June quarter 2016 - Report with lower resolution images (revised 2016-06-21) documentDigital GeneralDownLoad 01 Lower resolution copy matched Agricultural commodities: June quarter 2016 Revised 2016-06-21: • Page 19, chart 'Major Australian agricultural commodity exports', canola price increase for 2016-17 corrected to 6% from 3%, consistent with published oilseeds table • Page 34, chart 'Wheat exports, Australia, 2008-09 to 2016-17', export values series corrected, consistent with published wheat table. PDF Agricultural commodities: June quarter 2016 - Infographic documentDigital GeneralDownLoad 02 Key crops and livestock statistics from the Agricultural Commodities: June quarter 2016 in graphic form. 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