NERP TE Project 9.4 Conservation planning for a changing coastal zone (JCU)

The values of the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area (GBRWHA) are threatened by coastal development through habitat loss and runoff of sediment, nutrients and pollutants. Future coastal development is difficult to predict because it depends on volatile socio-economic and political factors. With this in mind, we developed a research project that uses spatially explicit scenario planning to identify plausible futures to 2035 for the GBRWHA coastal zone. The method used to produce maps of these scenarios is land-use change modelling using the GIS Idrisi. A governance analysis for the GBR coast is part of the project and is included in the scenario-planning process. Using a conservation planning approach, this project sets out to identify key priorities for restoring and protecting coastal ecosystems in the GBRWHA coastal zone. The objectives are to: - Compile spatial data on the coastal ecosystems and socio-economic characteristics of the GBRWHA coastal zone - Produce spatially explicit land use scenarios for the GBRWHA coastal zone to 2035 - Analyse the governance system in the GBRWHA coastal zone - Identify conservation goals for the GBRWHA coastal zone - Assess impacts of development for assets related to the conservation goals - Bring all the above information together to determine spatial options for allocating protection and restoration actions to achieve goals