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A Statistical Model of Severe Winds

Created 17/10/2025

Updated 17/10/2025

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Geoscience Australia's Risk & Impact Analysis Group has developed a statistical model of wind hazard utilising the Generalised Pareto Distribution (GPD). The model calculates the return period of severe winds based on daily maximum wind gust observations. The model utilises an automated procedure to partition the data into the hazard constituents (thunderstorms, synoptic winds, tornadoes, etc) based on the World Meteorological Observation Codes 3-hourly coded observations. This observational data set records the archived and present weather at the station site. The model fits the GPD to the station data (daily maximum wind gust) by automating the selection of the appropriate threshold above which data is included in the extreme value distribution. This threshold u is selected as the maximum of all feasible return period values obtained by fitting the GPD. Published comparative findings, including same region results, demonstrate the model can produce similar results in a more efficient, fully computational way. Confidence intervals for return periods are calculated automatically to allow wind analysts to distinguish regions of greater reliability.

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Additional Info

Field Value
Title A Statistical Model of Severe Winds
Language eng
Licence Not Specified
Landing Page https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/39209017-4273-4957-b901-b4e68bd7de66
Contact Point
Geoscience Australia Data
clientservices@ga.gov.au
Reference Period 22/04/2018
Geospatial Coverage
Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors
{
  "coordinates": [
    [
      [
        149.2,
        -35.3
      ],
      [
        152.15,
        -35.3
      ],
      [
        152.15,
        -30.76
      ],
      [
        149.2,
        -30.76
      ],
      [
        149.2,
        -35.3
      ]
    ]
  ],
  "type": "Polygon"
}
Data Portal Geoscience Australia

Data Source

This dataset was originally found on Geoscience Australia "A Statistical Model of Severe Winds". Please visit the source to access the original metadata of the dataset:
https://ecat.ga.gov.au/geonetwork/srv/eng/csw/dataset/a-statistical-model-of-severe-winds