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A statistical-parametric model of tropical cyclones for hazard assessment

Created 19/11/2025

Updated 19/11/2025

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We present the formulation of an open-source, statistical–parametric model of tropical cyclones (TCs) for use in hazard and risk assessment applications. The model derives statistical relations for TC behaviour (genesis rate and location, intensity, speed and direction of translation) from best-track datasets, then uses these relations to create a synthetic catalogue based on stochastic sampling, representing many thousands of years of activity. A parametric wind field, based on radial profiles and boundary layer models, is applied to each event in the catalogue that is then used to fit extreme-value distributions for evaluation of return period wind speeds. We demonstrate the capability of the model to replicate observed behaviour of TCs, including coastal landfall rates which are of significant importance for risk assessments. Citation: Arthur, W. C.: A statistical–parametric model of tropical cyclones for hazard assessment, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 893–916, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-893-2021, 2021.

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Field Value
Title A statistical-parametric model of tropical cyclones for hazard assessment
Language eng
Licence Not Specified
Landing Page https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/98dcf976-9f39-44ba-bf53-d3f22ff0ff7b
Contact Point
Geoscience Australia Data
clientservices@ga.gov.au
Reference Period 11/04/2018
Geospatial Coverage
Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors
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  "coordinates": [
    [
      [
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      ],
      [
        154.0,
        -44.0
      ],
      [
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      ],
      [
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        -9.0
      ],
      [
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      ]
    ]
  ],
  "type": "Polygon"
}
Data Portal Geoscience Australia

Data Source

This dataset was originally found on Geoscience Australia "A statistical-parametric model of tropical cyclones for hazard assessment". Please visit the source to access the original metadata of the dataset:
https://ecat.ga.gov.au/geonetwork/srv/eng/csw/dataset/a-statistical-parametric-model-of-tropical-cyclones-for-hazard-assessment1