Agricultural commodities: December quarter 2016

Overview The report provides updated commodity forecasts as well as articles on the EU beef industry, world biofuel policies and the South American wine industry.

Key Issues Commodity forecasts
• The gross value of farm production is forecast to increase by 6.1 per cent to around $60.2 billion in 2016-17, following an estimated 4.2 per cent increase to $56.7 billion in 2015-16. At this forecast level the gross value of farm production in 2016-17 would be around 16 per cent higher than the average of $52 billion over the five years to 2015-16 in nominal terms. • The gross value of livestock production is forecast to decrease by 2.2 per cent to $28.5 billion in 2016-17, following an estimated 7.7 per cent increase in 2015-16. • The gross value of crop production is forecast to increase by 14.7 per cent to $31.7 billion in 2016-17. This reflects forecast increases in the gross value of horticulture and cotton production. • Export earnings from farm commodities are forecast to increase by 6.7 per cent to $47.5 billion in 2016-17, following an estimated 1.4 per cent increase in 2015-16 to $44.6 billion. • The agricultural commodities for which export earnings are forecast to rise in 2016-17 are wheat (up 25 per cent), wool (3 per cent), sugar (23 per cent), wine (3 per cent), barley (15 per cent), cotton (56 per cent), chickpeas (74 per cent), lamb (4 per cent), canola (33 per cent) and rock lobster (6 per cent). • The forecast increases in export earnings are expected to be partly offset by forecast falls in beef and veal (down 17 per cent), live feeder/slaughter cattle (17 per cent) and mutton (12 per cent). Export earnings for dairy products are expected to remain largely unchanged. • Export earnings for fisheries products are forecast to increase by 3.4 per cent to $1.6 billion in 2016-17, after increasing by an estimated 7.1 per cent in 2015-16.

Economic assumptions underlying this set of commodity forecasts

In preparing this set of agricultural commodity forecasts: • World economic growth is assumed to be 2.9 per cent in 2016 and 3.3 per cent in 2017. • Economic growth in Australia is assumed to average 2.5 per cent in 2016-17. • The Australian dollar is assumed to average US75 cents in 2016-17, slightly higher than the average of US73 cents in 2015-16.

Articles on agricultural issues

The EU beef industry
• The European Union is one of the world's largest consumers and importers of beef. Access to the EU market is controlled by strict animal health requirements and various quotas, which limit the amount of beef that can be imported. • As the European Union is a high value market for beef, improved access for Australia from a free trade agreement would likely lead to increased exports to this market.

Oils ain't oils
• Biofuel policies in some of the world's largest biofuel producing economies have the potential to affect returns to Australian agricultural exports such as canola, sugar and coarse grains. • This article looks at recent developments in the world's leading biofuel producers and consumers (the United States, European Union and Brazil) and discusses the expected impact on world commodity prices in 2016-17 and the high-level implications for agricultural commodities in the medium term. South American wine industry
• South America is a major world producer and exporter of wine, accounting for almost 14 per cent of world production. Wine exports from South America have increased markedly in the past 15 years and its wine increasingly competes in Australia's major and emerging export markets. • This article focuses on the development of the Argentine and Chilean wine industries, with a focus on their competitiveness with Australian wine exports.