Australian crop report: September 2015 No.175

The report is a quarterly report with a consistent and regular assessment of crop prospects for major field crops, forecasts of area, yield and production and a summary of seasonal conditions on a state by state basis.

2015-16 winter crop production

Favourable seasonal conditions in most cropping regions in Australia during winter have resulted in improved prospects for 2015-16 winter crop production.

The outlook for spring rainfall is favourable for most cropping regions in Australia. In its latest three-month rainfall outlook (September to November 2015), issued on 27 August 2015, the Bureau of Meteorology forecast that wetter than average spring is likely in most cropping regions in New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia. Close to average spring rainfall is likely in most cropping regions in Queensland.

Total winter crop production is forecast to rise by 8 per cent in 2015-16 to 41.4 million tonnes, largely as a result of forecast production increases in Western Australia and New South Wales. Winter crop production is also expected to rise in Queensland and Victoria but remain largely unchanged in South Australia, compared with 2014-15.

Wheat production is forecast to increase by 7 per cent in 2015-16 to 25.3 million tonnes and barley production is forecast to rise by 8 per cent to 8.6 million tonnes. In contrast, canola production is forecast to fall by 9 per cent to around 3.1 million tonnes.

2014-15 summer crop production

Area planted to summer crops is forecast to increase by 1 per cent in 2015-16 to around 1.1 million hectares.

Total summer crop production is forecast to fall by 2 per cent in 2015-16 to 3.9 million tonnes, reflecting an assumed fall in average yields from 2014-15.

Area planted to grain sorghum is forecast to be largely unchanged in 2015-16 at 651 000 hectares. Assuming a return to average yields, production is forecast to fall by 4 per cent to 2 million tonnes.