Australian crop report: December 2016 No. 180

The report is a quarterly report with a consistent and regular assessment of crop prospects for major field crops, forecasts of area, yield and production and a summary of seasonal conditions on a state by state basis.

Key issues • Favourable seasonal conditions in most cropping regions during spring boosted the production potential of crops, which were already in very good condition at the end of winter. • Rainfall in September was well above average in most regions in the eastern states (including South Australia). This resulted in plentiful supplies of soil moisture being available to crops during the critical period for grain development. However, in some areas, particularly in New South Wales, the September rainfall resulted in flooding and waterlogged crops, which adversely affected grain development. • In Western Australia, spring rainfall was average to slightly below average--but timely--and aided grain development. However, severe frosts adversely affected grain development in some growing regions. • Total winter crop production is forecast to rise by 32 per cent in 2016-17 to a record 52.4 million tonnes with higher production forecast for every state. This represents a 14 per cent upward revision from the forecast ABARES published in the September 2016 edition of Australian crop report. • For the major winter crops: wheat production is forecast to rise by 35 per cent to a record high of 32.6 million tonnes; barley production is forecast to rise by 24 per cent to a record high of 10.6 million tonnes; and canola production is forecast to rise by 22 per cent to 3.6 million tonnes, which would be the third-highest on record. • The Bureau of Meteorology indicated in its latest three-month rainfall outlook (December 2016 to February 2017), issued on 24 November 2016, that summer was likely to be drier and warmer than average. This should aid harvesting. • Total area planted to summer crops is forecast to rise by 15 per cent in 2016-17 to around 1.4 million hectares. Producers are expected to increase planted area in response to favourable levels of soil moisture early in the planting window and plentiful supplies of irrigation water. Total summer crop production is forecast to rise by 21 per cent in 2016-17 to around 4.6 million tonnes. • Australian cotton production is forecast to increase by 64 per cent in 2016-17 to around 1.0 million tonnes of cotton lint and around 1.5 million tonnes of cottonseed. This forecast largely reflects increased planted area, which is estimated to have almost doubled to 520 000 hectares. • Area planted to grain sorghum is forecast to fall by 31 per cent in 2016-17 to 471 000 hectares, the lowest in 24 years. This reflects higher expected returns from growing cotton. Grain sorghum production is forecast to fall by 29 per cent to 1.4 million tonnes. • Area planted to rice is forecast to increase almost fourfold in 2016-17 to 90 000 hectares in response to an increase in the supply of irrigation water available to rice growers. However, area planted to rice is expected to be constrained by the later than usual winter crop harvest in southern New South Wales. Rice production is forecast to rise to 916 000 tonnes, an increase of more than three times on the previous season.