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Probabilistic modelling of storm wave clustering at Old Bar, NSW, including the impacts of seasonal and ENSO cycles.

Created 17/10/2025

Updated 17/10/2025

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In the last century coastal erosion has caused significant damage to property and infrastructure in NSW. Extreme erosion can be caused by individual extreme storms, or by multi-storm 'clusters' which induce disproportionate erosion by limiting the time for inter-storm shoreline recovery. Statistical changes in storm wave properties also occur in association with seasonal and ENSO (El-Nino Southern Oscillation) cycles, and a number of studies suggest the latter affects the mean shoreline position and likelihood of extreme erosion in NSW. Quantification of site-specific erosion hazards is necessary to support coastal management, with probabilistic or risk-based approaches being particularly attractive because they avoid reliance on arbitrarily chosen 'design' events. Callaghan et al. (2008) developed a methodology for probabilistic erosion hazard assessment on sandy shorelines, combining a probabilistic model of storm waves with a deterministic shoreline evolution model. The probability of the shoreline eroding past a given position (over a given timeframe) may be quantified, and epistemic uncertainties associated with e.g., our limited knowledge of the frequency of very large storms, are accounted for with bootstrapping. Herein we develop a probabilistic model of the storm wave climate at Old Bar, NSW, for use in a coastal erosion hazard assessment. A novel aspect of the model is that it accounts for the impacts of ENSO and seasonality on the storm wave properties, and the frequency of storm events. We establish relationships between ENSO, seasonality, and storm waves in the area using 30 years of wave observations, and extend the statistical framework of Callaghan et al. (2008) to account for these factors. This study is a key component of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Project "Resilience to clustered disaster events on the coast ¿ storm surge". References: Callaghan et al., (2008) Statistical Simulation of wave climate and extreme beach erosion. Coastal Engineering 2008, 55, 375-390.

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Field Value
Title Probabilistic modelling of storm wave clustering at Old Bar, NSW, including the impacts of seasonal and ENSO cycles.
Language eng
Licence Not Specified
Landing Page https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/a0970aba-8dee-44bf-a066-9d0ad32a18c8
Contact Point
Geoscience Australia Data
clientservices@ga.gov.au
Reference Period 16/05/2016 - 17/05/2016
Geospatial Coverage
Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors
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  "type": "Polygon"
}
Data Portal Geoscience Australia

Data Source

This dataset was originally found on Geoscience Australia "Probabilistic modelling of storm wave clustering at Old Bar, NSW, including the impacts of seasonal and ENSO cycles.". Please visit the source to access the original metadata of the dataset:
https://ecat.ga.gov.au/geonetwork/srv/eng/csw/dataset/probabilistic-modelling-of-storm-wave-clustering-at-old-bar-nsw-including-the-impacts-of-season