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Probabilistic Severe Wind Impact to Separate Residential Houses Based on BOM TC Statistical Ensemble Forecast

Created 26/03/2026

Updated 26/03/2026

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Severe wind from tropical cyclones (TCs) can cause significant damage to property and infrastructure, making accurate impact prediction essential for community safety. At Geoscience Australia (GA), the Tropical Cyclone Risk Model (TCRM) is an open-source, statistical-parametric tool designed to estimate the severe wind hazards posed by TCs. HazImp is a complementary tool developed to assess the impacts of natural hazards, including severe winds, on built assets. By integrating the Bureau of Meteorology’s (BoM) TC track and intensity forecasts with TCRM and HazImp, it is possible to estimate potential wind hazards and impacts on residential buildings. 

However, due to inherent uncertainties in atmospheric models, the predicted track and intensity of any TC event carry uncertainty. In response to stakeholder feedback highlighting the operational need to understand a range of potential outcomes for an approaching TC, GA has developed a probabilistic framework for estimating severe wind damage to individual residential houses, leveraging BoM’s TC statistical ensemble forecasts. 

The probabilistic outputs can be presented in several useful formats to aid decision-making, including: 

The probability of each damage state (e.g., slight, moderate, extensive) being exceeded in each Statisical Area 1 (SA1) region; 

The median and 95th percentile damage states per SA1; 

Histograms showing local government areas (LGAs) most affected by potential damage. 

These outputs provide critical insights to support emergency managers and other stakeholders in preparedness and response planning. 

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Additional Info

Field Value
Title Probabilistic Severe Wind Impact to Separate Residential Houses Based on BOM TC Statistical Ensemble Forecast
Language eng
Licence Not Specified
Landing Page https://data.gov.au/data/en/dataset/707306b5-2bed-4456-9931-1b863e8424ef
Contact Point
Geoscience Australia Data
clientservices@ga.gov.au
Reference Period 19/03/2026
Geospatial Coverage
Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors
{
  "coordinates": [
    [
      [
        112.92,
        -54.75
      ],
      [
        159.11,
        -54.75
      ],
      [
        159.11,
        -9.2402
      ],
      [
        112.92,
        -9.2402
      ],
      [
        112.92,
        -54.75
      ]
    ]
  ],
  "type": "Polygon"
}
Data Portal Geoscience Australia

Data Source

This dataset was originally found on Geoscience Australia "Probabilistic Severe Wind Impact to Separate Residential Houses Based on BOM TC Statistical Ensemble Forecast". Please visit the source to access the original metadata of the dataset:
https://ecat.ga.gov.au/geonetwork/srv/eng/csw/dataset/probabilistic-severe-wind-impact-to-separate-residential-houses-based-on-bom-tc-statistical-ens